Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver markets have rallied during the Friday session as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA sits just below current trading, and therefore it’s very possible that we could see a significant amount of support just underneath. That being said, silver is an extraordinarily volatile instrument under the best of circumstances, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior.
However, it’s probably worth noting that gold is taking off to the upside, and although silver has more of an industrial flavor to it, it does tend to follow gold over the longer term. If gold truly takes off, then it’s likely that we would see silver get pulled up right along with it. However, it looks as if it is going to be a bit of a laggard, just due to the fact of the industrial issues, as the global economy looks likely to continue fading.
Breaking down below the $21.50 level opens up a move down to the $21 level, and then possibly even all the way down to the $20 level after that. In that scenario, I would expect the US dollar to skyrocket, as the silver market is so sensitive to US dollar strength or weakness, so pay close attention to the US Dollar Index, as the correlation is well known.
Ultimately, you need to be very cautious with your position sizing due to the fact that we have a Federal Reserve announcement next week as far as interest rates are concerned, and that could have a major influence on what happens next with the US dollar, and then by extension silver. Because of this, if you are going to be a buyer precious metals, you probably are better off going long gold, as silver looks like it will continue to underperform. Even if we do break to the upside, the $24.50 level above has been like a massive brick wall, so I think at this point the upside is probably somewhat limited, even if we do break out over the next several sessions.
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